A recently declassified report submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee analyzes how Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would respond if Tehran acquires nuclear weapons.

Based on research and interviews, this report comes to the following conclusions:

1. Saudi Arabia: “The development of a Saudi nuclear weapon represents one of the most serious and most likely consequences of an Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. If Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, it will place tremendous pressure on Saudi Arabia to follow suit. The only factor that would likely dissuade the Saudis from pursuing a nuclear weapon would be a restored United States-Saudi bilateral relationship and a repaired Saudi perception regarding the reliability of the U.S. security guarantee. If the United States does not take deliberate actions in the coming years to achieve both of these objectives, an Iranian bomb will almost certainly lead to a Saudi bomb.”
2. Egypt: “Egypt would most likely choose not to respond by pursuing its own nuclear weapons. The potential Israeli response and the impact on Egypt’s relations with the United States represent the most important reasons.”
3. Turkey: “Turkey believes this increased Iranian power would lead to a more aggressive Iranian foreign policy and a marginalization of Turkey. In such a scenario, there would be strong voices in the Turkish General Staff, as well as among ultra-nationalist politicians, arguing for Turkey to respond by pursuing nuclear weapons. Thus, the possibility still exists thatTurkey would respond to Iranian nuclear weapons by developing nuclear weapons as well.”

A nuclear arms race in the Middle East will have a deep impact on the homeland security market of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government has already demonstrated on many occasions its decisiveness to go all the way in defending the Kingdom (for more information see Saudi Arabia Homeland Security Market Outlook - 2009-2018). High energy prices allow virtually unlimited defense & homeland security spending, enough to transform Saudi Arabia into Fort-Knox-country.

The announcement in December 2007 of a joint project between Areva, the French nuclear reactor maker, and Saudi Arabia for the development of nuclear energy made in December 2007 might be of one the steps taken by the Saudi Government in upgrading the Kingdom’s capabilities to reflect the new realities of the Middle East.